The Rundown: Week 9

Week 9 looks to be a weaker slate of games compared to what we have had the last couple weeks. You kind of have to look a little harder to find good matchups and injuries are playing a big part in that. Baltimore and Jacksonville was slated to be one of the best Thursday Night games of the season, but with Lamar Jackson getting hurt, the excitement around that one isn’t the same. We also have gotten used to having some big time division games and this week, the division games are not top tier.

Games of the Week

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

This is by far the best game going into Week 9. Josh Allen against the Vikings defense is a matchup worth paying close attention to.

In almost every matchup the Bills offense would have all sorts of advantages. There is one defense where they won’t have clear advantages and its this Vikings defense. They are as close as you can in almost every category and ranks, except one. There is a large gap in ranks when it comes to explosive rush rate. The Bills offense ranks number 1 and the Vikings defense ranks number 28, and you saw a little of that show up last week in the game against the Lions. I think for the Bills to have success, James Cook needs to have a big day and break off a couple long runs.

The least interesting matchup in this one is the Vikings offense against the Bills defense. Both units are ranked in the back half of the league. Kyler Murray has struggled as of late but the Bills defense hasn’t been shutting down opposing offenses either. This matchup is interesting for the fact of can either one step up and play above their average? If not, I like the Bills offense to find a way to win this one, similarly to the Detroit offense last week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Chicago looks to be the best team in the NFL right now, especially after the Simmons trade. They made a huge statement last week dominating the Seahawks in all three phases. Tampa Bay meanwhile, coming off a big division win against the Falcons, face another week of their backs up against the wall.

Surprisingly, Tampa Bay has some advantages over the Chicago offense. The Bears offense ranks number 8 in EPA per play and Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 2 in EPA. Although I think some of that has to do with Chicago not having Williams for a good amount of time. We saw this offense against the Seahawks defense and they seem to be better than their 8 overall rank. The biggest area in which the Bears struggle is explosive rush rate, ranking in the back half of the league in that category while Tampa Bay’s defense ranks in the top ten. I would look for Williams and this passing attack to be a big story in this game when the Bears have the ball.

If we’re going to mention Williams missing time, then we have to also mention Tampa Bay’s offense may not reflect the numbers with Baker missing time as well. We also have to acknowledge that this Bears defense is different than it was two weeks ago with the Simmons addition. We can look at data and stats to see what it says about this particular matchup, but I think this all comes down one question, can the Bucs find a passing game? The last two weeks they have been able to run the ball and find wins. I don’t think that’s going to be the case this week. I think Baker is going to have to use his arm more than the backs get carriers in order for Tampa Bay to find a win.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

This game makes one of my Games of the Week slots because this is another opportunity for Drake Maye to step up and lead the Patriots to a win against a good team. They get the Packers at home and if they can find a win, I think momentum could start to build for them with confidence heading into the back half of the season.

Green Bay’s offense has one distinct advantage and one big disadvantage. The passing game favors Green Bay’s offense while the run game favors New England’s defense. Explosive pass rate is the biggest discrepancy between these two sides – with Green Bay ranking number 6 overall and New England’s defense ranking 20th overall. I would like to see a lot of down field attacking from Green Bay’s offense early in this one in order to try and set up the run game later.

It’s a little more of a mixed bag when New England has the ball. Slight advantages in both favors peppered throughout with both teams being close in a lot of numbers. I think New England is going to want to attack on the ground and make this a possession type game. Limit the number of possessions each team gets by having long sustained drives to frustrate the Green Bay offense. I don’t think they are going to want to get into a passing competition with the weapons Green Bay has.

Quick Hitters

• Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (International Game): This one is slightly interesting, and almost made a Game of the Week slot. However, the Falcons are too inconsistent right now to be considered for that. One week they beat the Niners, then they followed it up with a terrible performance against the Bucs. This falls into the category of “I’ll be watching and paying attention”, but I’m not going to get too excited heading into it.

• Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers: Is this the week the Chargers get their first win? They are playing a struggling Texans team where the defense has underperformed and the offense can be hit or miss. The Chargers are still without some big names, but it is possible to think this could be the week.